The receipts · live ledger
We grade our own homework. In public.
Every entry below is a model verdict that was timestamped before the video's 30-day outcome existed. When each video turns 30 days old, its real performance attaches automatically — hit or miss, it stays on the board. Nobody edits this page; a cron job does.
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predictions on the ledger
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graded by reality (Day 30)
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within-channel pair accuracy
(coin flip = 50%)
(coin flip = 50%)
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ledger running since
How this works (pre-registered)
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Verdict bands vs. reality
| Model score band | Videos graded | Avg. views/day over first 30 days |
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What we claim: the model orders a channel's options better than chance — nothing more. We never predict absolute view counts; a video's fate also depends on timing, the algorithm, and luck. Scores are stamped with the model version that made them, and this page updates itself from the same database the model trains on.